Pennsylvania 2026 general: mail ballots
Read this first: Pennsylvania mail ballot numbers swing a lot
Early mail returns are a partial, lopsided slice of the vote. Big moves from one day to the next usually come from who has been counted yet, not from a change in how people are voting.
- Counties log at very different speeds. Each county enters returned ballots on its own schedule. Philadelphia logs early; Bucks, Delaware, Lehigh and others can sit near zero for weeks and then add tens of thousands at once. A statewide number can jump just because one county caught up.
- Mail voters lean heavily D. Since 2020, Democrats vote by mail far more than Republicans, who mostly vote in person on Election Day. Pennsylvania has no early in-person voting, so mail returns show only part of the electorate and always look D-heavy.
- Some R growth is voters changing method. Republicans who used to vote on Election Day are moving to mail. That raises R mail numbers without adding new R votes.
- Midterms and presidential years have different voters. 2026 voters are older and more habitual than 2024's. A gap with 2024 can be the normal midterm drop-off rather than lost support.
- Party registration is not a vote. These files show a voter's party, not their ballot. Crossover voting, like Shapiro's in 2022, does not show up here.
The map corrects for the first problem by default: the statewide shift only counts counties that had logged returns at both points being compared. The "Who is returning" view compares R and D inside each county.
You can reopen this with "Why these numbers swing" above.
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Mail ballots returned
Return rate by vote history
R
D
Bars are raw return rates, so fast-logging Philadelphia lifts D. The right column compares R with D inside each county (as the map does). Highlighted rows are the selected groups.
R vs D by age
R return rate ÷ D return rate within each age band, compared inside each county
Age mix: who returned, against everyone in the same groups
If R ÷ D holds steady across age bands but the R returners are older than the R voters in the group, the gap is who turns out in a midterm, not a softer base. A ratio that drops inside a band is a real shift in that band.